Testing The Waters

In Antarctica

Here’s a chart using UK micro data to look at chocolate prices in the UK.

Figure 1 Chocolate price have been rising faster than median inflation!

Figure 2: The range of chocolate prices has widened recently.

Average prices for a branded or unbranded single chocolate bar outpaced consumer price inflation from 1996 to 2016.

The spread between 10th and 90th percentile chocolates expanded, through branding differentiation in the UK market, combined with market segment expansion in higher-price chocolate bars.

The 10th percentile increasing at non-negligible levels suggests that the overall price increases was led by the broader macroeconomic growth, in emerging markets, BRICS, and increases in emerging markets for previously western market oriented products.

Further research using the price of raw cocoa may provide evidence on the extent to which price increases in raw cocoa commodities, from which chocolate bars are directly made, explain the increase in UK chocolate prices over the two decade period.

I am testing the waters and reflecting on it

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